|- Dealing with Dynamic Developments in the Planning Process - ”Rule-Based Dynamic Planning” 1755 kb|
|by Schrenk, Manfred | email@example.com |
|The use of rule-based dynamic predefinitions is practical for some fields of spatial planning, particularly where decisions depend on only few variables |
In the following contribution considerations to dynamic sampling of planning contents in spatial planning are presented. Thereby the necessity for an intensified inclusion of the time component - in particular under the target of a sustainable development - on the one hand and associated problems one the other hand are pointed out. As term for a planning, which considers dynamic developments and whose plan definitions change over time, rule-based dynamic planning (RDP) is suggested. The use of rule-based dynamic predefinitions is practical for some fields of spatial planning, particularly where decisions depend on only few measured variables or implications of effects in systems are known. Before such instruments can be used also in the juridical core ranges of spatial planning, extensive pre-work is still to be carried out. In this connection Geographical Information Systems can take an important role as implementation instrument.
1 Problem definition
In common plans for spatial development special attention is paid on the goal representation, the means and steps for the achievement of the goal all too often step into the background. To formulate it exaggerated: from the analysis of data from the past a (static) actual condition is determined and from this a (static) goal condition is developed.
With consideration of the main goals of an economical handling of scarce (natural) resources and a sustainable spatial development it is highest time also for spatial planning, to think and act in processes, connections and cycles more than in inventory sizes.
The main problem of each planning is the possibility of the occurrence of unforeseeable developments or the change of the basic conditions in the planning period. It can happen that defined goals of the plan become obsolete or at worst even counterproductive. For some planning contents it would be quite meaningful not to accurately specify them at the time of planning but to meet an exact regulation only if necessary and as a function of the development of other factors and thus to keep possibilities open, in order to be able to react to developments.
2 „Dynamic planning contents“
A possible way for a better handling of these problems is to take additionally up to “conventional” definitions also regulations, which change with the time. Therefore it is necessary to differentiate between plan definitions, whose change at a certain time is fixed in advance, and such, whose change depends on certain basic conditions. As name for a planning, whose contents and definitions change in the course of the planning period according to defined rules, rule-based dynamic planning (RDP) is suggested.
Substantial preconditions for the implementation of rule-based dynamic definitions are on the one hand constantly current data of the situation and the development of spatial phenomena, also referred to as “monitoring of spatial development”, and on the other hand tools, with which both plan documents and data base are manageable.
Appropriate data of the development of spatial phenomena are available in constantly rising quantity and quality from current automatic measurements (e.g. automatic traffic counting, air and water quality measurements, satellite photographs etc.). Geographical Information Systems offer the suitable tools.
2.1 Hopes and expectations
Hopes of the mentioned approach lie less in a change of the planning objectives themselves than rather in an improvement of the implementation as well as in a more effective usage of existing resources (fight against the “phenomena of simultaneousness”), made possible by short-term supervision and steering interferences.
Reaching certain characteristic values or deviating from the planning conceptions can be determined right away through monitoring of spatial development, immediate small corrections instead of later, usually more complex, repairs enable the observation of planning objectives.
A fully automatic adjustment of planning contents appears meaningful and justifiable only in exactly defined, always recurring situations, where implications of effects are well-known and visible.
Problems with a stronger dynamic sampling of planning contents lie mainly in the high complexity of spatial developments and the associated uncertainty over implications of effects.
With the combination of several conditions and/or rules the number of scenarios grows exponentially. As a consequence plans become even more obscure for the persons affected by the planning, than they now already are, and by overloading with an abundance of rules they hardly remain comprehensible also for experts.
A good part of the problems, which result in case of the application of regulations described above, will probably concern the legal range. Since it can happen that individual scopes are substantially affected by the acting of others, basic questions of juristic principles are concerned.
Case Study presented on the ISOCARP Congress 2002: The Pulsar Effect
Click to open the full paper as pdf document
Click to send an email to the author(s) of this paper