- Complex constrained CA urban Model: Long-term urban form prediction for Beijing metropolitan area    click here to open paper content599 kb
by    LONG, Ying & SHEN, Zhenjiang & DU, Liqun | longying1980@gmail.com   click here to send an email to the auther(s) of this paper
Short Outline
BUDEM, using cellular automata, is the spatio-temporal dynamic and bottom-up model for simulating long-term urban growth in the Beijing metropolitan area. We employ BUDEM to predict sustainable urban form.
Abstract
It is in great need of identifying the future urban form of Beijing, which faces challenges of rapid growth in urban development projects implemented in Beijing. We develop Beijing Urban Developing Model (BUDEM) to predict long-term urban form, as to support urban planning and corresponding policies evaluation. BUDEM is the spatio-temporal dynamic and bottom-up model for simulating long-term urban growth in Beijing metropolitan area, using cellular automata (CA) and logistic regression approaches. BUDEM, as an urban form simulating platform, is tightly developed for Beijing urban planning practice, and is a tempting practice of CA for urban planning application of a mega-city. The urban form simulated by BUDEM attempts to provide a premise of urban activities including different kinds of urban development projects for industrial plants, shopping facilities, houses. In the paper, concept model of BUDEM is introduced, which is established basing on prevalent urban growth theories. The method integrating logistic regression and MonoLoop is used to retrieve historical urban growth trend as the weight parameters in the transition rule by MCE, which is one innovative method to realize desired urban form. Regarding spatial factors considered in BUDEM, comprehensive environmental constraining, urban planning condition are adopted to reflect the Chinese urban developing characters and the sustainable objective. Moreover, BUDEM is employed for simulating a planned urban form (BEIJING2020) and predicting a long-term and sustainable urban form (BEIJING2049). For this, historical analysis of different phases and model estimation for BEIJING2020 are conducted, and BEIJING2049 is generated basing on the urban form and parameter set of BEIJING2020 with particular modification. In future, urban density simulation, competing land use transition simulation, and MAS employing discrete choice model will be introduced into current BUDEM to simulate various urban activities basing on different scenarios of urban policy.
Keywords
cellular automata, policy simulation, sustainable urban growth, logistic regression, BUDEM
Case Study presented on the ISOCARP Congress 2008: Urban Growth without Sprawl
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