- Spatial Expansion in Islamabad’s Rural Area: Patterns & Causes   269 kb by    Adeel, Muhammad | u3001229@hku.hk    Short Outline The research aims to examine the spatiotemporal trends of expansion through village population data and the land use map of Islamabad Master Plan. Abstract Islamabad’s rural area of ‘Zone IV’ houses 70 villages at 287 km2 rural land. The area lies adjacent to the metropolitan cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad and it has experienced a rapid population growth from 88 to 460 thousand in past 40 years. The research aimed to examine the spatiotemporal trends of this population expansion through village level population census data for year 1972, 1981, 1998, 2007 (projected) and the land use map of Islamabad Master Plan. The study found that the internal major road and external road connections have a strong influence on the expansion patterns. Using point based krigging interpolation in ESRI’s ArcGIS 9, the study found that the population densities (1) tend to spread towards the major roads like ‘bow wave’ form; (2) are concentrating at highly accessible areas and (3) their strength gradually declines away from the cities. Population Rank Mobility analysis highlights that the settlement ranks has shifted from mobility to stability in spatial context which will enhance the current trend of growth in future. Keeping in view the existing policies of physical development, the study suggests that the area needs integrated transport and land use planning approach for a sustainable future growth. Keywords Urban Expansion, GIS analysis, Population growth analysis, Islamabad Case Study presented on the ISOCARP Congress 2012: Fast Forward: Planning in a (hyper) dynamic urban context   Click to open the full paper as pdf document   Click to send an email to the author(s) of this paper